There is this company called Aereo and it’s creating a big ruckus in the media and entertainment industry.
Here’s what Aereo does. It allows you to watch and record broadcast television via an internet connected device (if you are located in a place that, if you had a TV with an antenna, could have picked up the broadcasts anyway). That’s it. Although the technology behind the whole system is comically complicated in order to comply with the letter of various laws, that hasn’t prevented broadcasters like Fox and CBS and basically all the others from attacking Aereo in the courts for “stealing copyrighted content.” The courts have not agreed and Aereo is expanding to over 20 markets.
The central thesis of the argument by the broadcasters is that Aereo does not pay entities like CBS “retransmission fees” - fees that companies like Dish, DirecTV, Comcast and Time Warner pay for the right to carry CBS programming. For CBS alone, $250 million in retransmission fees accounted for about 10% of CBS’ 2012 segment earnings.
For the whole business, SNL Kagan says that:
“ TV station owners’ retransmission fee revenues could reach $5.50 billion by 2017 and eclipse $6 billion by 2018, versus the $2.36 billion projected for 2012.”
Unless, of course, it does not. Because along with Aereo’s threat, Neilsen just recently noticed (and grossly underestimated the size of) the previously mythical “Zero TV Household” that somehow went from nonexistent a year ago to 5% (I think more like 10%) of all households overnight.
So it seems like a pretty simple case of squawking over lost easy revenue, right? Wrong.
For those of us who have been slogging away in the creation of Digital Media Supply Chains for the last 5 to 10 years, it’s important to consider just how different our world is from the world that came before.
For example, Neilsen Ratings are based on a sampling of 20,000 households in the USA and statistical methods are used to estimate the actual audience size. This approach is described (and defended) in a video that they have on (interestingly) YouTube: “Nielsen Ratings 101: Designing the Sample”, which describes sampling for their TV panels. Of the process, Arthur Nielsen Jr. says: “I try to explain how sampling works. Next time you go to a doctor and he wants to take a little bit of blood, tell him you don’t believe in sampling, take it all.”
Funny. And totally wrong at every level when it comes to digital media. Sampling is a mathematical tool to use when it’s impractical or impossible to quantify something holistically. Until recently, it was literally impossible to establish automated data collection of viewing habits in every household. Every digital native knows that, if you want to work with a sample of 100% of the audience, not only is it possible, it’s commonplace. If you’re in the business of selling access to digital media, it’s required for settlements and billing. You don’t hazard a guess +/- a few points when you’re paying a content owner based on completed views of a video. Netflix does not guess how many people watched what show.
This – the evidence based definition of the audience (and what it does) – is the real threat of Aereo.
Here’s how “audience” is discussed today. The New York DMA consists of 29 counties located in 4 states. When you buy ads on, for example, ABC (Disney) stations serving the NY DMA, they will present you with this handy little info-nugget:
”There are about 6.4 million wired cable TV households within the New York DMA, representing 85 percent of the market’s total TV households. WABC-TV is carried on every cable system serving the New York DMA, with virtually all of them assigning it Channel 7. Of 210 Nielsen television markets, New York is ranked #1 with 7,493,530 TV households. It is more than two times the size of the Chicago market, which is the #3 market.”
Big numbers, right? Sure – and that’s what justifies the big advertising numbers. So the “up-fronts” – a frenzy of selling and buying ad space on popular shows – come along and numbers in the tens of millions (both dollars and audience) are thrown around, and in the end, it adds up to tens of billions of dollars (estimates range from 60 to 70 billion).
But with Digital Media, we don’t actually think about “DMA’s” – even though we have learned to say “DMA” to communicate using the language of the locals. Indeed geography seems to be a rather quaint concept many in big media cling to. As an aside: a guy I know out in Hollywood had a total freak-out when he could not get a cell phone number with a Hollywood area code and exchange – really They think about place, more than you might realize. Big advertising is buying market size estimates and demographic generalities.
In digital media, we don’t think in estimates of audience size or guesses at audience behavior (even though some companies have learned that selling guesses just like the old days can be a nice business) we think in terms of real-time analysis and optimization.
And THAT is the real threat of Aereo (and every other 1:1 media delivery system) – it can do much more than kill retransmission fees (which, relatively speaking, are tiny compared to ad revenue), it can expose the reality of the audience’s viewing habits – and lower the price advertisers are willing to pay if evidence shows that the ads are not actually reaching the audience they want. Aereo is one of an arsenal of evidence-generating media consumption tools that are growing in popularity.
Consider:
- If you’re playing video on an iPad, one of the data points that could be collected is the orientation and/or movement of the iPad. What would it mean if every time a commercial played, it appeared that the iPad was laid flat, and when the show resumed, it was held upright?
- There’s no technical reason why a video (or commercial) playing via an Xbox (and 60% of Xbox use is media consumption, not game play) could not pause if the Kinect sensor does not see a person in the room (and Intel’s pending TV Box could do the same).
It’s possible to come up with a new idea for ad-supported television. We can talk all day long about C3 vs. C7 windows and create all kinds of fears about DVR use for ad-skipping. We can watch as the content owners wish for Charlie Ergan’s unexpected demise and listen to Leslie Moonves, the chief executive of the CBS Corporation asking “How does Charlie Ergen expect me to produce ‘CSI’ ” without commercials?” and the whole argument becomes much more clear. The argument really is, “How can we charge as much for ad time for programming and ads nobody is actually watching?”
Aereo and every other IP-delivered digital video system bring content to consumers and evidence to advertisers – and that’s going to change everything.
In my opinion, this is a shift that will be as fast and as hard as it was for the newspapers and music industry – but in the end, there will still be ads, there will still be television – but the players on the leaderboard will be very different in a few years than they are today.
NOTE: This is my personal blog and has nothing whatsoever to do with my employer.